Miami-Dade election results reveal shifting political landscape after 2026 midterms
by Thomas Schaffer
Last Tuesday's midterm elections saw Democrats make significant gains across the country. The party reclaimed the U.S. House and Senate, along with several governors' offices. But how did they fare at the local level, and what do those results tell us about South Florida politics moving forward?
Miami-Dade Shifts Left
Two years after then-candidate Donald Trump flipped Miami-Dade County by 11 points, becoming the first Republican to win the county on the presidential level since 1988, Miami-Dade returned to the Democratic column. Every statewide Democratic nominee, including gubernatorial nominee David Jolly and Senate nominee Angie Nixon, won Miami-Dade. The shift reflected the broader backlash to Republicans seen across the country, but especially in areas with large Latino populations, a demographic Trump had made major inroads with in 2024.
Despite these leftward shifts, congressional Democratic candidates largely fell short in the most competitive races. Incumbent Republicans Maria Elvira Salazar of the 27th district, who made headlines earlier this year for an ad in which she implored President Trump to change course on his immigration policy, narrowly won reelection against former journalist Eliott Rodriguez, a result later confirmed by a recount. In the 26th district, Republican Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart also triumphed over his Democratic opponent Nicole Locklin in a similarly close contest.
Judicial Races
In the lower-profile judicial race for the 11th Judicial Circuit for Group 5, attorney Arthur "Marty" McNeil was elected, defeating attorney Monica Segura. McNeil, who formerly worked at the Miami-Dade Public Defender's Office, was endorsed by the Miami Herald, while Segura, who highlighted her experience in civil and corporate law, was endorsed by the South Florida Police Benevolent Association. Ultimately, McNeil won with 51.3% of the vote to Segura's 48.7%.
In the 11th Judicial Circuit for Group 69, civil litigation lawyer Rita Maria Baez succeeded in her bid against attorney and former public defender Bonita Jones Peabody. The race was centered around the different legal backgrounds of the two candidates, with Baez emphasizing her work in private practice and Jones Peabody noting her experience in the Public Defender's Office. In the end, Baez garnered 58.3% compared to 41.7% for Jones Peabody.
In the elections for the 3rd District Court of Appeals, which covers Miami-Dade and Monroe counties, all judges were retained by wide margins.
Municipal and County Contests
Coral Gables reelected Mayor Vince Lago, who was first elected in 2022. Residents also rejected one of Lago's chief adversaries on the city commission, Melissa Castro, instead electing Nestor Menendez, an attorney who ran as an ally of Lago.
Vicki Lopez succeeded in her bid for reelection to the Miami-Dade Board of County Commissioners, comfortably fending off a challenge from Marine Corps veteran Rob Piper. Her victory secures Republican control of the Board of County Commissioners for another two years.
In Cutler Bay's hotly contested mayoral election, councilmembers Suzy Lord and Robert "BJ" Duncan advanced to a December 1 runoff, as no candidate received a majority of the votes in Tuesday's election.
South Miami officials all ran uncontested, leading to automatic reelection for Mayor Javier Fernandez and commissioners Steve Calle and Lisa Bonich.
Karen Baez-Wallis and Tamara Mourino, candidates for Palmetto Bay mayor, both advanced to a December 1 runoff, as no candidate reached 50% of the vote last Tuesday. Baez-Wallis and Mourino are running to succeed outgoing Mayor Karyn Cunningham, who was term-limited after serving eight years as mayor.
Referendums
The most high-profile initiative on the ballot on Election Day was Amendment 3, which proposed higher property tax exemptions on homesteads (primary residences). The amendment passed with 62% of the vote statewide, clearing the 60% threshold required for statewide amendments. The initiative saw significant support in Miami-Dade County, capturing nearly two-thirds of all votes within the county.
The amendment's passage has significant implications for Miami-Dade and its residents. The exemption for property taxes on homesteads will increase from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027, a figure that will eventually rise to $250,000 the following year. Supporters of the amendment say the changes could bring economic relief to homeowners throughout the state. Since property taxes are collected by counties rather than the state, Miami-Dade County officials, however, warn of considerable revenue losses in upcoming fiscal years, potentially leading to cuts to services like Metrorail and public libraries, a possibility County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava alluded to in previous commission hearings.
The City of Miami also had a contentious referendum on the ballot to determine the future of Virginia Key's public waterfront. The issue stemmed from a 2016 lease of the waterfront, involving the city and a developer, Virginia Key LLC. The city subsequently reversed course on the lease, before placing it on the ballot as is required for public waterfront deals. Eventually, a circuit judge ruled that Miami had to put the agreement before the voters, resulting in this year's vote. Throughout the campaign, opponents of the referendum claimed that the deal, based on land values from 10 years ago, would lack adequate financial return for the city, while supporters claimed it would revitalize the marina and improve its infrastructure.
The referendum was ultimately rejected by Miami voters by a large margin, with the "No" vote receiving 65% of the vote compared to 35% in support.
Miami-Dade voters also renewed an ad valorem property tax on Election Day. The tax, aimed at raising teachers' salaries within public and charter schools, passed by more than 60 percentage points, receiving broad support across the county.
Unofficial totals from the Supervisor of Elections put turnout for the 2026 elections in Miami-Dade County at nearly 61%, a notable increase from the last midterm's turnout of 47%. Results will be certified by the Canvassing Board after provisional ballots and cure affidavits are reviewed.
To follow runoff election results, check the Supervisor's website on Tuesday, December 1.
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