How to Win Your 2025 Fantasy Football League: A Guide to the Draft
- Allan Tompkins
- Aug 28
- 8 min read
By: Allan Tompkins
It’s that time of year again. Despite the sadness that some students might feel as they settle back into school and say bye to summer, there is something to look forward to: fantasy football. The next six months will be loaded with intense matchups and a dramatic battle for dominance with the ultimate title of the league champion in everyone’s mind.
While the idea of boasting your superiority to your leaguemates at the end of the season sounds rewarding, arguably the most important step toward that goal is the draft at the beginning of each season. With every year comes new strategies and because of that, this year, I will be offering an updated draft guide to help you dominate your league. Whether you’re a beginner to fantasy football or an experienced veteran, this guide should apply to anyone looking for statistically-backed picks that will help you excel this season.
Before I get into the guide, though, there are a few disclaimers I must address. First, this guide is primarily applicable to PPR leagues and is also heavily inspired and backed up by statistics and opinions coming from fantasy football influencer Joel Smyth, whose draft guide made this possible, so make sure to check out his page which will be linked throughout the article. Without further ado, let’s get started.
Running Backs
Running backs are arguably the most impactful players on a fantasy football team as they can either win you your league or get you last place as many people experienced last year with Christian McCaffrey and his extended absence due to injury. Therefore, it’s common to see most elite running backs getting taken off of the board within those first few rounds which is why when you are in the position to take a running back, it’s important that you make the right call.
This graph compares the yards a running back gets before contact to his team’s run-block rank. Those players near or on the line are pretty equal to their offensive lines’ rankings while those above are obviously less dependent on them. Particularly, players like Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, De’Von Achane, Josh Jacobs and Chase Brown stick out on this graph while players like Javonte Williams, Najee Harris and Isiah Pacheco don’t. This means that the former options have safer future volume compared to the latter which can come in handy for those of you who prefer those high-floor, safer players.
Another graph here helps further shave off those riskier running backs that you should aim to avoid during your draft. The players in red and yellow are much more dependent on touchdowns to maintain their fantasy positions. Players like James Cook and Brian Robinson are specifically in red because they were heavily dependent on touchdowns and still finished outside of the top 10 running back rankings which means that without those consistent goal-line pushes, their RB rankings will likely slide further.
Derrick Henry, who is also among these players is depicted in green because he finished as a top five running back in 2024 showing that despite his dependency on touchdowns, he was able to stay consistent through other breakout plays as well.
Finally, something that is often overlooked when it comes to NFL players, especially running backs, is age. This graph shows the sweet spot age for running backs entering their prime which is between that 24 to 26 age range. This is good news for Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane who are all turning 24 this season. Being the elite running backs that they’ve already proven to be, they are likely to fall under the almost 50 running backs aged 24 in the last 25 years who have finished their seasons with at least 15 fantasy points per game.
Wide Receivers
Next on the list is wide receivers which are usually safer options than running backs yet just as important. The good thing about wide receivers is that there a lot more of them left later in the draft than there are running backs which means that while you should aim to acquire at least one elite wide receiver in the early rounds unless you’re banking everything on running backs, there are still a plethora of options toward those mid rounds in the draft.
Similar to the graph used for running backs earlier, this graph compares the adjusted yards per route to the first downs per route to measure how safe a player’s future volume is. One particular outlier that might stand out is Puka Nacua who wasn’t even able to fit inside of the graph which shows how safe his future volume is barring he doesn’t get injured or ejected in many games this season. Other players who benefit are A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, Drake London, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ladd McConkey while players who are more volatile include Xavier Worthy, D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp and Marvin Harrison Jr.
Another similar graph to one seen in the running back section is a wide receiver’s dependency on touchdowns to maintain a consistent points per game (PPG). Players like Jalen McMillan and Quentin Johnston managed to finish outside of the top 40 wide receivers while over 25% of both of their points per game depended on touchdowns which is not a good sign.
Other older players like Mike Evans also depended on touchdown passes especially when Baker Mayfield was seen primarily targeting Chris Godwin for most yardage gaining plays before Godwin got injured. Even without any of their touchdown plays, both Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase would’ve finished within the top 15 wide receivers, showing that their volume will be maintained in a Bengals offense that didn’t change at all over the offseason.
This graph is a particularly fun one to look at as it practically shows you quarterbacks’ go-to targets and their percentage to throw to them. While it includes running backs and tight ends too, wide receivers are dominating this graph. Malik Nabers saw great volume as a first read target yet, with Daniel Jones as his quarterback last season, it was hard to see as many completed passes which will likely change under a slightly better situation with Russell Wilson.
Brian Thomas Jr., Drake London, George Pickens and Puka Nacua are some other notable names that saw WR1 volume last season which is a great indicator for a maintenance of that volume for those who didn’t see many offensive changes.
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks have been sneaking their way up many people’s drafts as they are another component of a team that could win or lose you a week’s matchup. What’s different about quarterbacks though is that while there are around five elite quarterbacks who will be taken within the first four rounds, the tier fall between that level of QB and the next one is steep, meaning that it is one of the most strategic decisions you must make in a draft: take a QB early and forget about it, or risk a top-end one to prioritize other positions instead.
For many leagues, rushing attempts by quarterbacks can prove to garner a large sum of points which has been one of the leading reasons to why quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts are being taken so early. In this graph, attempted QB scrambles are compared to designed attempts which highlights those QBs that sneakily scramble when the opportunity presents itself. This is good for players like Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Brock Purdy and Bo Nix while it is bad for players like Jared Goff, Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa.
This graph is basically a huge prediction for what path quarterbacks are falling in based on their past seasons which is, for the most part, reliable yet I wouldn’t make any extremely important decisions because of it. Those in the top left of the graph regressed in 2024 after overperforming in 2023 while those in the bottom right overperformed in 2024 after regressing in 2023. The top right of the graph shows quarterbacks who are unlikely to change in efficiency while those in the bottom left haven’t taken advantage of their volume just yet.
A bit more of a concrete prediction is how quarterbacks are projected to perform compared to their average draft position (ADP). Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson can be seen slightly under the line because they are being taken so early on in many drafts yet are still expected to perform exceptionally well. Those above the line like Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, J.J. McCarthy and Justin Herbert are basically “sleeper picks” at their ADP while those below the line like Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff are being drafted at an ADP that is unlikely to support their 2025 performances.
Tight Ends
Last but certainly not least are tight ends. It’s honestly surprising how some tight ends like Brock Bowers have been going as early as the 2nd round yet it’s an important indicator that the position should be of more importance than you might initially value it as. Similar to quarterbacks, there is a pretty severe difference between the tiers of tight ends which means that you, once again, need to make a smart decision based on your position in the draft over when to take a tight end.
This graph is analyzed in the same way as the one used for quarterbacks in the previous section. Those in the top right are likely maintaining their volume while those in the top left regressed after overperforming in 2023 and vice versa. Some notable players here are Dalton Kincaid, Jake Ferguson and George Kittle. Out of those three, Kittle is being drafted highest but many are overlooking Kincaid and especially Ferguson who is now healthy and in a stronger offense that will provide more opportunities for him now that George Pickens joined the Cowboys.
This last graphic isn’t a graph, but rather an explicit depiction of the tiers that I’ve been referring to throughout the guide. The green means the player has been bumped up from his original position while red is the opposite. Those in the first tier are seen getting drafted as early as the second round while those in the second tier can be seen getting drafted past the seventh round.
At the end of the day, fantasy football is a game of predictions and while many of these graphs are guesses, they’re backed up by years of patterns and tendencies that have proven to be accurate year after year. Other than knowing what players you want in the draft, a big part of it is patience and not drafting players way higher than their ADP unless you’re either completely sold on them or are afraid one of your leaguemates might snag them before you can.
Hopefully this draft guide was able to help clear up any concerns or weariness regarding certain players and help you feel more confident for your upcoming draft. Once again, I want to thank Joel Smyth for all of his helpful data and I strongly urge you to check out what he has to offer as well as his very own draft guide, which inspired much of this one.
Wow! Thank you so much, I was super worried because I joined a new fantasy recently and the punishment is very bad. I do not want to risk even potentially losing, so you best believe I will be following this guide effectively line for line. If I win I will be forever grateful to you and be in your debt. I hope to see you do one for Woman's Basketball next year because I really need the help there. Have a phenomenal day I hope good things come to you.