The Sixth Mass Extinction Survival Guide

by Juan-Pablo Pina

The Black Rhinoceros exhibit at the American Museum of Natural History. (Photo Credit: Juan-Pablo Pina)

Throughout its 4 billion-year-long history, life on Earth has faced five mass-death events termed “The Five Mass Extinctions”. These are scenarios in which 50% (or more) of life on Earth is wiped out in a short period of time, the famous instance being the KP-g Extinction Event that wiped out the non-avian dinosaurs 66 million years ago. However, now we are facing the next Mass Extinction, and this time we “are the asteroid”. So here is what you should know if you want to survive and help stop the Sixth Mass Extinction Event.

PART I. History

So, how did we get here?

Around 4 billion years ago, the first organisms appeared on Earth. About 500 million years ago was the “Cambrian Explosion”, an event where animal and plant life burst in biodiversity (most animal and plant lineages can trace their origins to this time). About 100 million years later, however, the first mass extinction, the one that ended the Ordovician period, occurred, wiping out 60% of all life on Earth. This mass extinction was caused when the planet, whose sea levels were 125 meters higher than they are today, underwent a period of extremely rapid cooling that wiped out much of the habitat of marine life. Roughly 100 million-150 million years later, during the end of the Devonian period, the first vertebrates (backboned animals) crawled onto land. Soon after, the Devonian would also end with a mass extinction event caused by algal blooms that choked out the oxygen in the then-biodiverse oceans and also made the water extremely acidic, wiping out 96% of all marine life.

Fast forward roughly 300 million years and we enter the Permian period, a time when all of Earth’s major landmasses combined into the supercontinent Pangea. At the same time, however, the first relatives of mammals, the furry group of animals that creatures like dogs and elephants and humans belong to, emerged and took over the land. However, about 250 million years ago, due to extremely violent and long-lived volcanic eruptions, 90% of all life on Earth was wiped out in an event known as The Great Dying. 50 million years later came the Triassic Extinction which, aside from being when Pangea began to split apart, wiped out 76% of all life on Earth and also paved the way for the dinosaurs (as well as the flying reptiles and great sea reptiles) to take over the world.

From about 200 million years ago to 66 million years ago, life on Earth has had no problems bar a few major/minor cooling and warming periods. Dinosaurs rule the Earth, flying reptiles soar in the sky, flowers and the first grasses appear, true birds (avian dinosaurs) evolve and marine reptiles dominate the oceans. However, 66 million years ago, an asteroid the size of Mt. Everest slams into the Gulf of Mexico, setting off a chain of horrible events like tsunamis and wildfires (and eventually a sort of non-radioactive “nuclear winter”) that wipe out 65% of all life on Earth, including the non-avian dinosaurs and the great reptiles that ruled the land and sea alongside them. But this would pave the way for mammals to finally take over the world and finally give rise to us humans.

In total, life on Earth has weathered five mass extinctions with 99% of all species rendered extinct as of the modern day. However, we are now facing a “Sixth Mass Extinction”. But what’s causing the Sixth Mass Extinction? To put it simply: we are. Our actions are setting off a chain of natural events which historically have only ever ended in a mass extinction. But what are we doing to cause such a horrible event? And how did we start?

PART II. The Thing That Should Not Be

Humans have never been the most physically impressive species. Birds have flight, crocodiles have crushing bites, whales and elephants have size and we have a fairly small and squishy body compared to most “large” animals. However, we do have one vital weapon: our brains.

When early humans first made their way out of Africa and into Australia, Eurasia and the Americas, we carried along with us knowledge of how to bite back against the ruthlessness of the natural world. Fire helped us defend, weapons like handheld “spear-launchers” helped us get food, culture helped to strengthen our communities and learning allowed us to adapt. Animals 100 times our own weight could be brought down as we colonized the planet. And as we began to harvest crops by the season while taming animals like oxen and birds, we managed to leave the hunter-gatherer lifestyle and have both a steady supply of food and a chance to stay put rather than constantly migrate to avoid starvation.

This eventually gave way to the Agricultural Revolution and, afterwards, the Industrial Revolution. However, as we became more and more efficient, we eventually became way too efficient for the planet’s own good, taking more land and consuming more food than any other species or even group of species in history.

Humans would overfish 30% of fish stocks to critical levels. They’d cut down over 15 billion trees every year, halving the area of the entire world’s rainforests. By damming and polluting rivers and lakes, humans would reduce freshwater populations of animals by 80%. Half of the fertile land on Earth would become farmland. 70% of the mass of birds on Earth would be domestic, with the vast majority being chickens. Humans would account for over one-third of the weight of mammals on Earth, a further 60% being the animals we raise to eat. The rest, from mice to whales, make up just 4%. Even since the 1950’s, wild animal populations have dropped by more than half. And while warming caused by volcanic eruptions has usually taken anywhere from 100 thousand to a whole million years to truly do any damage, humans would do even more in a single human lifetime. And while this warming would only step into the spotlight in the 1990’s, the only reason for that is because the ocean had been absorbing a vast majority of the heat, masking the effects of humankind’s actions. And this means that not only have summers in Antarctica been warming, but places that were once locked in a fortress of sea ice are now open to travel by boat since summer sea ice in the arctic has reduced by 40%. In fact, the rate of animal and plant extinctions would skyrocket to something unseen since the one-shot disaster of the KP-g extinction 66 million years ago. Nowadays, 30 thousand species are going extinct per year with 82 species every day and four species every hour.

The world would no longer be wild, but instead be a planet run by humans for humans. Humans would become an infestation like when a plague strikes livestock. The only time such a biodiversity loss had ever occurred was 252 million-250 million years ago, during The Great Dying.

And if this is allowed to continue, it’ll only get worse.

By the 2030s, the Amazon rainforest would be cut down and burnt until it could no longer produce enough moisture and eventually degrade into a dry savanna, bringing catastrophic species loss and altering the global water cycle. At the same time, the arctic would become totally ice-free in the summer, meaning that less of the sun’s energy would be reflected back out to space while the speed of global warming increases.

By the 2040s, frozen soils throughout the north would thaw and release methane, a greenhouse gas many times more potent than CO₂, accelerating the rate of climate change even more. And by the 2050s, the ocean would continue to heat up and become more acidic meaning that coral reefs around the world die and fish populations crash. By the 2080s, global food production would enter a crisis as soils become exhausted by overuse. Pollinating insects would disappear while the weather would become more violent and more unpredictable.

By the time 2100 rolls around, the entire planet would become 4°C warmer, meaning that large parts of the Earth are uninhabitable, millions of people are rendered homeless and dead, and animals and plants of all kinds are pushed past their limits. It’s a series of one-way doors that bring irreversible change.

The Sixth Mass Extinction is not just the death of the world’s largest and most prolific species, it is the collapse of the entire living world. The very thing we have built our empire and enterprise on…

PART III. Survival

The first thing is location, location, location. With sea levels rising extremely quickly, high ground is incredibly valuable and should be used to the maximum effect. However, as the world is quickly moving to a warmer climate, avoiding areas prone to drought or desertification is an important goal that will become harder to achieve as time goes on. Areas like northern forests, highlands and natural springs are ideal spots for their resources and opportunities for shelter.

Speaking of resources, clean freshwater will be more valuable than gold, so finding a spot where it's easily accessible is crucial. Building rain-catchers, relocating near reservoirs, digging wells, or locating underground sources are surefire ways to maintain a steady supply of water. In cases where it's impossible to get clean freshwater reliably, boiling water or finding a way to filter it will be almost mandatory to avoid getting diseases or pollution in your body. As for food, growing climate-resilient crops is a must. Potatoes, beans, millet and amaranth are good bets while fungi-farming, which can be fueled via decaying matter and even work in the dark, also works as a sustainable “second option”. However, as the world moves closer to a violent and warmer climate, much like that of the Eocene or even the Cretaceous, the elements will be increasingly hard to ride out. Depending on where you are, hurricanes, wildfires and heat-waves will become increasingly common and more powerful. 

Shelters and dwellings should be made low to the ground to avoid being swept up in storms or flames. Earth berms (dwellings made in mounds or hillsides), cobs (huts made of clay and straw) and underground bunkers are your best bet as even historically the organisms who survive extinctions manage to ride out the hellstorm in resilient places. But there is another tool that we Homo sapiens have that not even other extinction-survivors had: community.

It’s what helped primates as a whole survive in the trees and undergrowth before strolling out onto the plains and making a name for ourselves. Creating small, tight-knit communities where everyone has a role or a way to help out helps everyone stay sharp and healthy. And with an increasing number of places being quickly ravaged by nature, mass migrations of vulnerable people from rural and urban areas alike will be common, so being welcoming is a safe bet to establish useful relationships. But another key to human survival is the fact that knowledge=power. Mandatory know-how in the field of food and water should include gardening, permaculture, foraging and water filtration. First aid, herbal medicine and trauma care will be necessary for health while DIY repairs, insulation, carpentry and passive cooling/heating act as baselines for knowledge of construction. And if it’s available/viable, knowledge in the field of technology (solar power, batteries, energy rationing, off-grid comms, ham radio and basic coding) can take you from surviving to thriving if used correctly and sustainably. And in terms of defense, conflict de-escalation, as well as threat assessment and self defense (i.e, martial arts or melee weaponry) will be necessary especially in a world where, at least initially, a majority of people will have an “every man for himself” mentality. And no matter where you are, if you’re going to be nomadic or stationary, staying informed on where you are and what’s around you (i.e., local ecology and geography) should become almost-basic knowledge to you. And a smart way to keep all of that knowledge without risking forgetting will be to store it in books, scrolls, and journals that are portable in case of emergency. 

Knowledge like this, as well as the act of sharing it, are both what helped humans arrive at the Agricultural Revolution and may act as your saving grace.

PART IV. How To Win The Battle

The thing is, this is a mass-extinction unlike any other. It’s living, breathing, hungry, and greedy. But unlike the world-warming volcanic eruptions of the past, this mass-extinction is a beast that can be slain. The first way to slay the beast is to end short-term thinking. Short-term thinking only makes rules for a few decades that are practically meant to be changed and reworked. Another way to help punch a hole in the beast of manmade extinction is in the way we treat science and history. In the unfortunately true words of Friedrich Hegel, “We learn from history that we don’t learn from history.” The Sixth Mass Extinction is living proof of that.

And we need to change that.

The argument always goes around that “Well, life has recovered from extinctions five times before. It’ll do it a sixth time.” But this is not only a short-sighted argument, but an ignorant one. In the grand scheme of things, the prior mass extinctions have left life scarred but not dead. However, when you look closer at it, there’s a consistent through-line on who survives: the independent and self-sufficient ones. In the case of the Permian-Triassic Extinction, it was the small burrowing animals who could eat almost anything who survived. In the case of the KP-g Extinction 66 million years ago, the same thing happened. The large and heavily environment-dependent species like apex predators or colossal herbivores never make it through. And humans are both of those at once. With desertification, droughts, floods, hurricanes and wildfires becoming more and more common, humans will eventually disappear as a result of the Sixth Mass Extinction.

But, in the words of Terry Pratchett, we are the “storytelling ape”. We can tell a different story, one where this isn’t the end, but instead the beginning of a multi-million-year peaceful reign over not just our planet, but maybe even other planets.

Think about it.

Doesn’t it feel super different now?

But this is going to take a lot of work. And not just physical labor, but also self-control, long-term thinking, creativity, acceptance, unity and trust. And I’m going to tell you exactly what we can do, how we can do it and why.

Every other species on Earth reaches a maximum population eventually (the number that can be sustained with the natural resources available). And with nothing to restrict humans, the global population has practically been skyrocketing, with current projections showing that there could be around 11 billion people on Earth by 2100. But there is a way to slow, even to stop population growth before it reaches that point.

Japan’s standard of living climbed rapidly in the latter half of the 20th Century as education and healthcare improved. This also meant that people’s opportunities and expectations grew while the birth rate fell. In 1950, a Japanese family was expected to have three or more children, but by 1975, the average was two. The result is a stabilized population that has also barely changed since the millennium.

The trick is to increase our standard of living across the world without also increasing our impact. And once again, this can be done. For example, the natural world is essentially solar-powered, with the sun generating energy equal to 4.5 trillion atomic bombs; it sends more energy to Earth in an hour than we humans consume in a year. Not only that, but all of Earth’s plants capture three trillion kilowatt-hours of solar energy every day, 20 times our current energy needs and that’s just from sunlight! Imagine what could be done if we ran our world on the eternal energies of nature like geothermal, solar, water and wind. We have examples of how this has greatly benefited areas of the world.

At the turn of the century, Morocco relied on imported oil and gas for almost all of its energy. Today, it generates 40% of that energy on-site from a network of renewable power plants, including the world’s largest “solar farm”. Sitting on the edge of the Sahara and connected to southern Europe, Morocco could be a major exporter of solar energy by 2050. Using renewable energy everywhere will make it more affordable, cities will be cleaner and quieter and renewable energy will never run out. And even if by some means it does, we can use nuclear energy to fuel us and possibly take us to worlds beyond…

As for the oceans, neither we nor the natural world can operate without a healthy one. It’s a critical ally in our battle to remove carbon from the atmosphere, so the more biodiverse it is, the better it does that job. The feces of whales fertilize hordes of microscopic ocean plants called phytoplankton, which act just like land plants, so stabilizing and aiding in the growth of whale populations can be equivalent to planting billions of trees. And, of course, the ocean is important to all of us as a source of food.

Fishing is the world’s greatest wild harvest. And if we can do it right, it can continue thanks to a win-win at play. The healthier a marine habitat, the more fish there will be and the more there will be to eat. And once again, we have empirical evidence of this being tested and successful.

Palau is a Pacific Island nation reliant on its coral reefs for food and tourism. When fish stocks began to decline, the Palauans responded by restricting fishing practices and banning fishing entirely from many areas. Protected fish populations soon became so healthy that they spilled over into the areas where fishing was allowed. As a result, the no-fish zones have increased the catches of the local fishermen and allowed the reefs to recover. Imagine if we committed to such a thing across the world. Estimates suggest that no-fish zones over a third of our coastal seas will be sufficient to provide us with all the fish we will ever need. The UN has recently created the largest no-fish zone in the world, set in international waters.

This one act, and future ones like it, can turn our oceans from places exhausted by fishing fleets to a wilderness that’ll help us all in our efforts to combat climate change. It can be the one true greatest wildlife reserve. When it comes to the land, we need to rapidly reduce the area we use to farm.

Across the natural world, we see a stark ratio between the numbers of predators and prey. For example, in the African Serengeti, the predator-prey ratio is 1/100+. It has to be this way since carnivores rely on herbivores and herbivores rely on vast amounts of space for food. However, by cutting back on our population, we can cut back our impact.

And this isn’t a novel idea and it doesn’t have to hurt.

The quickest and most effective way to do this is to change our diet. Once again, we can look at the predator-prey ratio in places like the Serengeti. Whenever we choose to eat meat, we unwittingly demand a huge amount of space. Planet Earth has never been able to support billions of carnivores. But what it can support is far more herbivores. Just like how even single regions of the Jurassic world managed to support such vast populations and diversities of sauropod dinosaurs, we humans would only require half the land we use at the moment if we had a largely plant-based diet. And since we’d be dedicated to raising plants, we could also increase the yield substantially.

The Netherlands is one of the world’s most densely populated countries. It’s covered in small, family-run farms that have no room for expansion. Therefore, Dutch farmers have become experts at doing a lot with a little. And what’s more, they’re doing so increasingly and sustainably. Raising yields tenfold in only two generations while at the same time using less water, fewer pesticides, less fertilizer and emitting less carbon.

Despite its size, the Netherlands is now one of the world’s largest exporters of food.

We can apply both low-tech and high-tech solutions to produce more food from less land. We can start to produce plant food in new spaces. Indoors, within spaces and even from the sea. As we improve farming, we’ll start to reverse the land-grab that we’ve been pursuing ever since we began to farm.

Forests are a fundamental component of our planet’s healing. They’re one of nature’s best and most sophisticated tools for locking away carbon and are also centers of biodiversity. Like the oceans, the more biodiverse and protected forests are, the more effective they are at absorbing carbon from the atmosphere. We need to immediately halt deforestation everywhere and if we are to continue to grow crops like oil palm and soya, we must only do so on land that was deforested long ago and can now only be used for crops (after all, there’s plenty of that). However, we can do better than that.

A century ago, more than three-quarters of Costa Rica was covered in forest. And by the 1980s, uncontrolled logging had reduced this to just one quarter. The government decided to act by offering grants to landowners who planted native trees. In just 25 years, the forests have returned and now cover half of Costa Rica. Just imagine if we did things like this on a global scale. The return of the trees would lock away as much as two-thirds of the carbon emissions from our activities.

If we commit to these concepts and change the way we live on Earth, a different future comes into view. One where the Sixth Mass Extinction was stopped by humans, the champions of the natural world. In this future, we discover ways to benefit from our land that help, rather than hinder, wilderness. Ways to fish our seas that enable them to come quickly back to life. And ways to harvest our forests sustainably. We will finally learn how to work with nature rather than against it.

With all these things, there’s one overriding principle:

Nature is our greatest ally and inspiration. We just have to do what nature has always done: evolve. It worked out the secret of life almost 4 billion years ago. In this world, a species can only truly thrive when those around it also thrive. All we have to do is embrace and work with that fact…